The September jobs report does not settle the tech-hiring question. U.S. payroll employment edged up, a selected group of tech-adjacent industry payrolls was smaller than a year earlier, and Indeed's software-postings index moved in the other direction. Those facts can coexist because each measure counts something different.

The September report

On October 2, the Bureau of Labor Statistics published the September 2026 Employment Situation. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%. BLS described both changes as little changed.

The revisions matter. July moved from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000. August moved from a gain of 162,000 to 133,000. Together, those months now show 60,000 fewer jobs than first reported. Average hourly earnings for private nonfarm workers reached $37.81, up 3.0% over the year. That wage figure covers all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, not software roles.

What the industry payrolls show

The same BLS release and Table B-1 report seasonally adjusted payroll levels by the employer's industry. September 2026 is preliminary. Comparing September 2025 with September 2026:

  • Information: 2,859,000 to 2,739,000, down 120,000, or 4.2%. The sector fell by 10,000 in September.
  • Computer systems design and related services: 2,387,600 to 2,355,400, down 32,200, or 1.3%.
  • Publishing industries: 913,000 to 880,400, down 32,600, or 3.6%.
  • Computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting, and related services: 476,300 to 453,800, down 22,500, or 4.7%.
  • Web search portals, libraries, archives, and other information services: 183,100 to 183,300, up 200, or 0.1%.
  • Scientific research and development services: 912,200 to 918,300, up 6,100, or 0.7%.
  • Semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing: 372,700 in both months.

Total nonfarm payrolls grew from 158,548,000 to 159,044,000 over the same year, a gain of 496,000, or 0.3%.

For one directional comparison, Raydar added four separate lines: computer systems design, publishing, computing infrastructure, and web search, libraries, archives, and other information services. The sum fell from 3,960,000 to 3,872,900, a decline of 87,100, or 2.2%. The same basket fell by 9,800 from August to September.

That basket is Raydar's math, not a BLS category. The three Information lines are siblings, and computer systems design sits under professional services, so none overlaps another. The 2,739,000 Information total is context and is not added to the basket. It is also a broad comparison, not a count of the total tech workforce. BLS says its payroll series use 2022 NAICS, and the Census Bureau's 2022 NAICS manual shows that publishing includes software publishers as well as nonsoftware publishers. The web-search line also includes libraries, archives, and other information services.

What job postings show

Indeed's Job Postings Index data track postings on Indeed and classify occupational sectors from normalized job titles. Each seasonally adjusted series uses February 1, 2020 as 100 and a seven-day trailing average. Raydar downloaded the pinned sector file and pinned national aggregate on October 5. The latest observation was September 25, 2026, compared here with September 26, 2025:

  • Software Development: 64.17 to 78.09, up 21.7% over the year and still 21.9% below the February 2020 baseline.
  • Scientific Research and Development: 69.27 to 83.10, up 20.0%.
  • IT Systems and Solutions: 70.06 to 75.98, up 8.4%.
  • IT Infrastructure, Operations and Support: 64.06 to 68.53, up 7.0%.
  • Data and Analytics: 58.32 to 62.05, up 6.4%.
  • All U.S. postings: 101.75 to 103.80, up 2.0%.

The separate August JOLTS release, published September 29, estimated 7.1 million U.S. job openings. The hires rate was 3.3%, the quits rate was 1.9%, and the layoffs and discharges rate was 1.0%. Within the Information sector, estimated openings rose from 78,000 in July to a preliminary 123,000 in August, versus 141,000 in August 2025. BLS still classified job openings as little changed in every industry, so one monthly estimate should not carry the argument by itself.

Raydar's earlier Indeed snapshot explains the index and its limits in more detail.

Why the measures disagree

Indeed's occupational sectors come from normalized job titles in postings on Indeed. A software engineer opening at a bank can count under Software Development. BLS payroll data sort workers by the employer's industry. A recruiter at a software publisher counts in publishing.

A posting is also not a completed hire. The fair reading is narrower: software ads were more plentiful than a year earlier, while payroll levels in Raydar's selected industry basket had not shown the same recovery by September. Neither series explains why the gap exists, and neither proves that a particular company has approved new headcount.

What candidates should ask

Ask whether a role is new headcount or a backfill, when it opened, and where the team is in the interview process. A rising postings index gives you market context. It does not tell you whether one seat is funded or close to being filled.

Treat the 3.0% wage figure the same way. It is an average across private nonfarm payroll employees. For a real offer, compare the role's published range and separate base salary from bonus, commission, and equity. Raydar's FDE pay comparison shows why the label on a range matters.

What founders should do

Do not use one national payroll number to set a software-hiring plan. Price the job against its occupation, level, and location, then make the mandate clear. If candidates can see more ads for similar work, a slow or vague process gives them an easy reason to keep looking.